There is a glaring lack of alignment between South Africa’s power road map and the country’s jobs, industrial development and growth ambitions as outlined in the New Growth Path (NGP), a power sector analyst has warned.

Speaking during a Web presentation on South Africa’s integrated resource plan, or IRP2010, Frost & Sullivan energy business unit leader Cornelis van der Waal warned that, while the electricity plan assumed a lowering of the economy’s power intensity between 2010 and 2030, he was uncertain whether South Africa had the necessary skills in place to support such an immediate shift.

It was, thus, likely that much of the growth and job creation ambition outlined in the NGP would be heavily dependent on an affordable and reliable electricity supply, which was not currently guaranteed through the IRP2010.

In fact, the plan forecasts that, in the absence of material demand shaving and own- and cogeneration from energy-intensive industries, South Africa could face severe supply-side constraints between 2011 and 2016. That shortfall could be as high as 42 000 GWh over the period, which Van der Waal calculated could cost the economy R3,15-trillion if not remedied.

Notwithstanding that constraint, the NGP, which is still in draft form, was targeting the creation of five-million jobs by 2020, a revitalisation of South Africa’s manufacturing base, an increase in infrastructure investment and growth in mining, agriculture and green industries.

To achieve this, Van der Waal argued that the Department of Energy would have to give a favourable hearing to generation options currently not listed in the IRP2010, including coal-based generation options.

But the authorities should also review the price path assumptions contained within the IRP2010, which suggested that electricity prices would have to rise from around 40 c/kWh currently to over 110 c/kWh by 2020. Such a rapid rise, he argued, could "break" a number of industries core to the aspirations of the NGP.

It was also important that government moved to close the gap between the IRP2010, the NGP and proposed climate and environmental policies.

“In my view, South Africa is placing too much emphasis on carbon dioxide. As a developing country, South Africa has to accept that it is going to be extremely difficult to force such fundamental changes through in such a short space of time,” he warned.