Over the course of 2015 the oil industry - led by Shell - has sought to position itself as both the provider of "the path to prosperity" for the millions of people living in poverty and as the voice of "realism" and "practicality" in the debate on how to avert catastrophic climate change.

After having set up the "Oil and Gas Climate Initiative" (OGCI) earlier this year, the industry's most recent move was Shell's chairman Chad Holliday's announcement of the Energy Transitions Commission on September 28. Shell and other members of the OGCI oil companies are reportedly due to release further plans to tackle climate change imminently.

However, analysis of Shell and BP's energy scenarios demonstrates that the industry's rhetoric on both international development and climate change is contradicted by its own forecasts.