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Flatlining?

Flatlining?

6th December 2013

By: Terence Creamer
Creamer Media Editor

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The adjectives used to describe South Africa’s third-quarter growth statistics spoke volumes: dismal, disastrous, disappointing and disturbing.

The figures were always expected to be bad, mainly owing to the fact that the reporting period coincided with protracted strikes in the automotive sector. But the 0.7% quarter-on-quarter expansion of gross domestic product, the slowest pace of growth in four years, was worse than many had been expecting. In fact, even if manufacturing’s 6.6% contraction is stripped out, the economy still only expanded at a pace of less than 2% during the quarter.

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South Africa is trudging a low-growth path and its economic leaders, both in the public and the private sectors, appear to lack the energy, the vision and even the desire required to change course. This lack of urgency is all the more startling given that the country is moving towards elections in early 2014 and is arguably symptomatic of a lack of true political competition. That said, the fact that the African National Congress remains so dominant also means that South Africa is unlikely (in the immediate future anyway) to descend into the kind of turmoil that is weighing down some of the economies in North Africa and the Middle East.

Nevertheless, in the context of chronically high unemployment, deplorable poverty and extreme inequality, a more concerted focus on clearing the obstacles to the higher levels of growth could have been expected. That’s not to say growth alone will be sufficient to deal with the so-called ‘triple curse’, but the task will be made much more difficult in its absence.

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A key obstacle seems to be the fact that South Africa has a genuine competitiveness problem, especially in its trade-exposed sectors. What is left of this country’s manufacturing sector is battling to cope with rivalry, particularly from Asia. Costs in the country’s other key export sector of mining have been rising well ahead of productivity, while agriculture is weighed down by uncertainty over land reform.

In all three instances, there are surely policy levers available to help address the problem. But in all three productive sectors, the nettle is not really being grasped, leaving a void of uncertainty that is being filled not by risk taking and investment, but by inertia or, worse still, squabbles over the prevailing spoils.

Government has to take the lead in addressing this crisis, not only by making the case for higher growth, but through outlining a coherent policy path for achieving that goal. That’s not to say nothing is being done (many Ministers and officials are working tirelessly). But in too many instances it is one policy step forward and two steps back – a situation not aided by the seeming unwillingness of South Africa’s President to choose that new path and stick with it.

Thankfully, South Africa’s proximity to fast-growing African markets offers some hope that this economy can be jolted back to life. But again, more urgency needs to be shown to position this country for that opportunity. Failure to do so will result in a continued flatlining of this economy and its growth prospects.

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