Introduction

On November 28, 2010, Egypt will embark on Parliamentary elections to decide the make-up of the country’s legislative capacity. The build-up to the election has been shrouded in controversy, with a number of arrests of members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood group. The Brotherhood argues that the authorities are intimidating them to keep them away from the polls. Despite being banned by an Egyptian law that disallows religious or ethnic parties from registering, the Brotherhood, in past elections, has fielded candidates in the electoral parties as independent candidates.

The US State Department has subsequently called for foreign monitors of the process and also met with a group in Egypt pressing for reform, in response to which, Egypt has angrily accused the US of meddling in its affairs. Despite recent attacks on opposition members and apparent human rights violations, the Egyptian government says that it supports a free and fair election.

Recent History

The creation of a modernised Egypt can be attributed to the liberalisation policies of former President Anwar Sadat in the 1970s. After the highly regulated regime under Abdel Nasser, Sadat introduced policies that ensured greater political freedom and a new economic policy that opened the door for privatisation, and attempted to attract foreign investment. Sadat deregulated the Egyptian economic system and embarked on a political campaign that aimed to prosecute corrupt government officials who benefited under the Nasser regime.

Towards the end of Sadat’s rule, there was increasing unrest and violence in reaction to the President’s rule, especially after it sparked off a renewed measure of repression in the country. Sadat was assassinated by Muslim extremists on October 6, 1981.

Vice-President Hosni Mubarak stepped into the role and was subsequently confirmed President by popular referendum. He has held the position for four consecutive six-year terms. Mubarak was most recently elected to another Presidential term in September 2005.

Since 1991, Mubarak has embarked on an ambitious plan of privatising many of the State’s assets. However, there has been little change regarding political reform, with opposition parties finding it difficult to mount credible challenges to the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), owing to the party’s monopoly of State resources and the media.

According to Egyptian law, it is illegal to establish any political party based on religion. The Muslim Brotherhood, seen as the main opposition to the NDP, is, thus, technically illegal. However, this does not stop the Brotherhood from running for elections under the guise of independent candidates.

Electoral System

Egypt’s Parliamentary body is known as the People’s Assembly and has 454 members. Of these members, 444 are elected by popular vote and the remaining ten are appointed by the President. Recently approved legislation has made for greater gender equality in the People’s Assembly, which has set aside 64 new seats for women, totalling 518 Parliamentary seats. The 64 seats will be contested for the first time in the upcoming Parliamentary election.

As stipulated by the Constitution, 50% of the assembly seats are reserved for “workers and peasants”. The assembly sits for a five-year term, but can be dissolved by the President before its mandate is up.

The NDP and the Muslim Brotherhood

The NDP has been the dominant political force in Egyptian politics for a number of decades. The party currently holds an overwhelming majority in the People’s Assembly and other institutions that dominate the political system. Opposition parties frequently complain about electoral manipulation by the State and the tight regulation around the media that restricts freedom of expression of the opposition and nongovernmental entities.

With the outlawing of religious political parties, the Muslim Brotherhood was effectively rendered illegal. The party, however, continues to exist underground and has a growing support base. Leaders of the Brotherhood continue to make their voices heard and are influential over their supporters. The fact that many Brotherhood candidates compete in elections in an independent capacity allows the party certain political influence.

Pre-election Circumstances

The period leading up to the Parliamentary election has been characterised by a government crackdown on the opposition, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, in which about 1 000 activists have been arrested during the party’s rallies. There has also been the fear that the government plans to manipulate and rig the vote, in much the same way that they were suspected of doing in the 2005 election.

The Egyptian government has also staunchly rejected allowing international election monitors to oversee the process, amplifying fears that the election will not be free and fair. This comes after they rejected the call by the US, an ally, to allow international observers. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry responded by claiming that the US was acting like an “overseer” and was not respecting Egypt’s sovereignty.

To counter the threat of election rigging, fraud and violence, rights activists are encouraging voters to report such incidents, using social networking to document the process. This data will then be geoprofiled on Google maps to show the event’s location. The initiative has been adopted from the Kenyan election, in which it acted as an effective benchmark in judging the level of violence and irregularities that occurred during the poll. Whether the authorities allow the initiative to go ahead remains to be seen.

Conclusion

The lead-up to the election has been controversial because of government’s crackdown on opposition and the blocking of election observers. It is likely that Mubarak’s NDP will retain its Parliamentary majority and its grip on State resources.

Just days before the vote, Egyptian courts ordered the cancellation of the election in 24 districts. This comes after orders to reinstate opposition and independent candidates were ignored. It is likely that the court order will be suspended as the NDP contests the ruling. Most of the candidates whose applications were rejected come from the Muslim Brotherhood, while the others are independent. Further, the public prosecutor has ordered an investigation into NDP complaints that candidates from the Brotherhood should be disqualified on the basis that they are misrepresenting themselves and misleading the electorate.

Main Sources

US Department of State. Country Profile: Egypt. (November 22, 2010).
Associated Press. Egypt activists struggle to monitor election. (November 25, 2010).
Al Ahram Weekly online. Parliamentary elections. (November 26, 2010).
Country Studies. Egypt – Elections. (November 24, 2010).
Yahoo News. Tensions heat up ahead of Egypt election. (November 20, 2010).
Polity. No rule changes for presidency vote – Egypt party. (November 25, 2010).
Polity. Egypt’s ruling party challenges Islamists. (November 26, 2010).

 

Party 2000 2005
National Democratic Party 388 311
Muslim Brotherhood 17 88
Other opposition 16 9
Independents 21 24
Still contested 2 12
Presidential approved 10 10
Total 454 454

Introduction

On November 28, 2010, Egypt will embark on Parliamentary elections to decide the make-up of the country’s legislative capacity. The build-up to the election has been shrouded in controversy, with a number of arrests of members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood group. The Brotherhood argues that the authorities are intimidating them to keep them away from the polls. Despite being banned by an Egyptian law that disallows religious or ethnic parties from registering, the Brotherhood, in past elections, has fielded candidates in the electoral parties as independent candidates.

The US State Department has subsequently called for foreign monitors of the process and also met with a group in Egypt pressing for reform, in response to which, Egypt has angrily accused the US of meddling in its affairs. Despite recent attacks on opposition members and apparent human rights violations, the Egyptian government says that it supports a free and fair election.

Recent History

The creation of a modernised Egypt can be attributed to the liberalisation policies of former President Anwar Sadat in the 1970s. After an oppressive regime under Abdel Nasser, Sadat introduced policies that ensured greater political freedom and a new economic policy that opened the door for privatisation, and attempted to attract foreign investment. Sadat deregulated the Egyptian economic system and embarked on a political campaign that aimed to prosecute corrupt government officials who benefited under the Nasser regime.

Towards the end of Sadat’s rule, there was increasing unrest and violence in reaction to the President’s rule, especially after it sparked off a renewed measure of repression in the country. Sadat was assassinated by Muslim extremists on October 6, 1981.

Vice-President Hosni Mubarak stepped into the role and was subsequently confirmed President by popular referendum. He has held the position for four consecutive six-year terms. Mubarak was most recently elected to another Presidential term in September 2005.

Since 1991, Mubarak has embarked on an ambitious plan of privatising many of the State’s assets. However, there has been little change regarding political reform, with opposition parties finding it difficult to mount credible challenges to the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), owing to the party’s monopoly of State resources and the media.

According to Egyptian law, it is illegal to establish any political party based on religion. The Muslim Brotherhood, seen as the main opposition to the NDP, is, thus, technically illegal. However, this does not stop the Brotherhood from running for elections under the guise of independent candidates.

Electoral System

Egypt’s Parliamentary body is known as the People’s Assembly and has 454 members. Of these members, 444 are elected by popular vote and the remaining ten are appointed by the President. Recently approved legislation has made for greater gender equality in the People’s Assembly, which has set aside 64 new seats for women, totalling 518 Parliamentary seats. The 64 seats will be contested for the first time in the upcoming Parliamentary election.

As stipulated by the Constitution, 50% of the assembly seats are reserved for “workers and peasants”. The assembly sits for a five-year term, but can be dissolved by the President before its mandate is up.

The NDP and the Muslim Brotherhood

The NDP has been the dominant political force in Egyptian politics for a number of decades. The party currently holds an overwhelming majority in the People’s Assembly and other institutions that dominate the political system. Opposition parties frequently complain about electoral manipulation by the State and the tight regulation around the media that restricts freedom of expression of the opposition and nongovernmental entities.

With the outlawing of religious political parties, the Muslim Brotherhood was effectively rendered illegal. The party, however, continues to exist underground and has a growing support base. Leaders of the Brotherhood continue to make their voices heard and are influential over their supporters. The fact that many Brotherhood candidates compete in elections in an independent capacity allows the party certain political influence.

Pre-election Circumstances

The period leading up to the Parliamentary election has been characterised by a government crackdown on the opposition, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, in which about 1 000 activists have been arrested during the party’s rallies. There has also been the fear that the government plans to manipulate and rig the vote, in much the same way that they were suspected of doing in the 2005 election.

The Egyptian government has also staunchly rejected allowing international election monitors to oversee the process, amplifying fears that the election will not be free and fair. This comes after they rejected the call by the US, an ally, to allow international observers. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry responded by claiming that the US was acting like an “overseer” and was not respecting Egypt’s sovereignty.

To counter the threat of election rigging, fraud and violence, rights activists are encouraging voters to report such incidents, using social networking to document the process. This data will then be geoprofiled on Google maps to show the event’s location. The initiative has been adopted from the Kenyan election, in which it acted as an effective benchmark in judging the level of violence and irregularities that occurred during the poll. Whether the authorities allow the initiative to go ahead remains to be seen.

Conclusion

The lead-up to the election has been controversial because of government’s crackdown on opposition and the blocking of election observers. It is likely that Mubarak’s NDP will retain its Parliamentary majority and its grip on State resources.

Just days before the vote, Egyptian courts ordered the cancellation of the election in 24 districts. This comes after orders to reinstate opposition and independent candidates were ignored. It is likely that the court order will be suspended as the NDP contests the ruling. Most of the candidates whose applications were rejected come from the Muslim Brotherhood, while the others are independent. Further, the public prosecutor has ordered an investigation into NDP complaints that candidates from the Brotherhood should be disqualified on the basis that they are misrepresenting themselves and misleading the electorate.

Main Sources

US Department of State. Country Profile: Egypt. (November 22, 2010).
Associated Press. Egypt activists struggle to monitor election. (November 25, 2010).
Al Ahram Weekly online. Parliamentary elections. (November 26, 2010).
Country Studies. Egypt – Elections. (November 24, 2010).
Yahoo News. Tensions heat up ahead of Egypt election. (November 20, 2010).
Polity. No rule changes for presidency vote – Egypt party. (November 25, 2010).
Polity. Egypt’s ruling party challenges Islamists. (November 26, 2010).
Khaleej Times. Egypt courts cancel election in several districts. (November 26, 2010).