*Ten seats are appointed by the ruling National Military Council.

Introduction

In the first Parliamentary election since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, in February 2011, about 50-million Egyptians voted in a complex three-staged process to decide the makeup of the lower house of Parliament. The process stretched from late November 2011 to early January 2012.

According to results released on January 21, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJB), a moderate Islamist party derived from the previously banned Muslim Brotherhood, garnered enough seats to dominate the lower house with 47% of the vote. It is important to note, however, that the party did not receive an outright majority in the house.

The conservative Islamist party, Al-Nour, came second with 121 seats, followed by the more liberal Al-Wafd party with 38 seats.

The lower house is constructed to put together a 100-member panel that will draft a new Constitution for the country, which will come into effect after a Presidential election scheduled for June 2012. Currently, the National Military Council is in power and is overseeing the transition to civilian rule.

Electoral System

Egypt’s Parliamentary elections are notorious for their complexity. Spanning over six weeks, and comprising three stages, the lower house, known as the People’s Assembly, is the basis for legislative policy-making in the country.

The People’s Assembly consists of 508 seats. Of these seats, 498 are elected, while ten are appointed – usually by the President but, in this case, by the National Military Council. Out of these 498 seats, two-thirds (332) are elected from the party-lists using the proportional representation method, with a 0.5% threshold in 46 districts. The remaining 166 seats are open to candidates who run as independents, or wish not to represent any political party. At least half of these candidates are required to be labourers or farmers, while the other half must be professional parliamentarians. Runoff elections are assigned to candidates who did not receive an outright majority in the first round.

Voting Stages

Owing to the massive 80-million population, the Egyptian electoral authorities have traditionally broken the elections up into three stages.

Stage 1:

This stage ran from November 28 to 29, with the runoff on December 5 and 6. It occurred in the major urban centres of Cairo and Alexandria, as well as seven other provinces.

Stage 2:

The second stage took place on December 14 and 15, with the runoff on December 21 and 22. This vote ran in nine provinces.

Stage 3:

The third and final stage was held in the remaining nine provinces on January 10 and 11.

Future Concerns

Egypt now enters an unsure phase in its political transition in a postdictatorial environment that centres around a number of key issues. The first, and possibly most worrying, is the role of the military. In the recent past the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) repeatedly said they would honour the ideals of the January 25 revolution by placing power firmly into the hands of civilians.

More recently, however, the SCAF has hinted that they wished to continue to play a political role despite the promise to transfer power to elected officials. This is a worrying aspect, as human rights organisation Amnesty International has documented human rights abuses by security forces in which they have violently suppressed protests, resulting in the death of 84 civilians between October and December 2011.

Secondly, there is major concern, particularly among secularists, on the stance and policies that the FJB may adopt. This concern resonates particularly with the US and Israel, which are fearful of a conservative, religious government given the US economic ties and the Israeli peace treaty held previously with the Mubarak government.

Despite these concerns, the FJP has vowed not to form an alliance with the more radical Muslim Al-Nour party. The US has already recognised the political legitimacy of the FJB and vowed to work together to strengthen and secure economic ties. Israel is wary that the FJB might abandon bilateral treaties that Israel and Egypt share; however, the FJB has given its word that it will continue to honour them.

Conclusion

Despite the drawn out election for the lower house, the work of Egyptian voters is not done yet. A second three-round election will be held between January 29 and March 11, 2012, to elect 270 members of the upper house, also known as the Shura council. Egyptians will elect a President in June and will be mandated to implement the forthcoming new constitution.

The Egyptian people have been enthusiastic in making their mark in shaping a new democratic country, which has been exemplified by the high turnout rate of 62%. As mentioned, there are still a number of obstacles that remain in achieving a democratic Egypt. It is quite clear, however, that Egyptian politics will depend much more on the nature of the civil–military relationship in the country.

Main Sources

Al- Bawaba. Egyptian elections enlightener special. (January 9, 2012).
Al-Masry Al-Youm. Final election results to be announced Saturday. (January 17, 2012).
Al-Masry Al-Youm. Highe Elections Commission: 15 of 27 political parties represented in Parliament. (January 21, 2012).
IDN. Egypt continues march to democracy. (January 18, 2012).
MarketWatch. ElBaradei withdraws from Egyptian election. (January 14, 2012).
Polity. Islamists secure top spot in Egypt Parliament. (January 13, 2012).
The Egyptian Gazette. Egypts revolution: one year later. (January 18, 2012).