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On November 28, 2011, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) embarked on its second democratic election since independence after the brutal civil war that lasted from 1998 to 2003. The election was mired in controversy, with results indicating that incumbent President Joesph Kabila won the election with 49% of the vote. There has been widespread criticism of the poll, particularly from opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi, who has claimed widespread fraud, voter intimidation and discrepancies in the voting process. He has subsequently been joined by a chorus of local and foreign criticism for the poll, casting doubt on the credibility of Kabila holding office for another term.
Meanwhile, violent clashes between opposition supporters and police have led to 18 deaths and 100 injuries to date and, unless the political standoff is mediated in a timely manner, the DRC risks plunging back into civil war, similar to that which engulfed the region at the turn of the century.
Electoral System
The DRC’s President is elected by direct popular vote for a five-year term. Joseph Kabila succeeded to the Presidency, following the assassination of his father Laurent Kabila on January 16, 2001.
Electoral Fraud
Alongside Tshisekedi, Cardinal Laurent Monsengwo, the head of the influential Catholic Church in the DRC, has voiced his concern over the poll, as the electoral commission stopped the church’s observer mission from releasing its tabulated results, arguing that it is not a political entity.
The country’s electoral commission, led by a pastor who is close to Kabila, delayed releasing the results by polling station and, therefore, preventing observers forming the numbers against each station. Instead, the results were released province by province, thus, allowing the commission to amalgamate thousands of voting sites and allegedly doctoring the numbers in Kabila’s favour.
The vote was plagued by chaotic management and localised violence resulting in voter intimidation. The counting process lacked transparency and the criteria for disqualifying ballots was unclear. The process does not allow for any audit of the result.
US observers from the Carter Centre said that, after viewing the preliminary results, voter turnout in Kabila strongholds was impossibly high, with some districts accounting for 100% of voters – a figure that is unlikely in one of the most underdeveloped areas in the world that has hardly any roads or transport infrastructure. The United Nations peacekeeping mission in the Congo, Monusca, has also expressed concerns over the results, together with the European Union.
Violence
Tension mounted prior to the release of the results, particularly in the capital Kinshasa, where police fired teargas to disperse opposition supporters. This followed deadly police crackdowns on opposition political rallies, as well as clashes between political rivals.
The violence has put the country, and the region, on high alert as Tshisekedi has reportedly told his supporters to remain calm and await his signal should they embark on any action. He has organised several peaceful rallies to protest the outcome of the elections. It is generally understood that Kabila controls the army, while Tshisekedi has support on the streets, particularly in Kinshasa, indicating the potential for an explosive civil–military conflict.
Future Challenges
The current political impasse in the DRC has Kabila unlikely to cede power and Tshisekedi seemingly ready to revolt against the results. Further, Tshisekedi has said that he will not accept being part of a coalition government, similar to that of Zimbabwe or Kenya, leaving little room for a negotiated settlement.
Regional and international actors have expressed concern about the issue, with several African countries saying they are willing to mediate the crisis. Although Tshisekedi supporters are mobilised for peaceful marches across the country to protest the results, it is unlikely that they will be able to stop the country’s Supreme Court, which is packed with Kabila loyalists, from ratifying the results.
It would seem that there is little hope for Tshisekedi in challenging the results through the country’s democratic institutions, which leave him with limited options that could potentially be very dangerous for the poverty-stricken country and could threaten the stability of the region as a whole.
Main sources
African Elections Database. Elections in Congo-Kinshasa (December 14, 2011).
AllAfrica.com. Congo-Kinshasa: Kabila declared DRC election victor, Tshisekedi says he won (December 10, 2011).
Business Day. DRC delays presidential vote results for 48 hours (December 8, 2011).
Business Day. DRC police fire teargas as poll result draws near (December 7, 2011).
Crisis Group. DR Congo: Saving the elections (December 8, 2011).
Irishtimes. Opposition to protest over disputed DRC election results (December 12, 2011).
Mail & Guardian. Violence, fraud cast long shadow over DRC elections (November 29, 2011).
News24. Growing criticism of DRC vote (December 13, 2011).
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