Once again the ruling alliance of the ANC, Congress of SA Trade Unions (COSATU) and the SA Communist Party (SACP) in South Africa face more developments around factional and power struggles that have the potential to impact dramatically on the alliance’s future. First off there is the 3-day COSATU central executive committee (CEC) meeting this week. Secondly there are a number of power/factional struggles emerging in ANC provinces around leadership positions which also impact at the national level. Both have the potential of impacting on future developments at national level in the ANC and the alliance.

COSATU’s CEC

COSATU’s CEC meeting this week will receive two important reports that theoretically could signal the start of the formal break-up of the labour federation. For some time already the federation has been divided down the middle around support for various COSATU leaders/factions which in turn revolves around political support for the ANC and its policies, the government and President Jacob Zuma’s leadership.

The first report is COSATU general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi’s draft report for next month’s central committee (CC)  meeting – a mid-term policy review meeting - that will be discussed at this week’s CEC meeting. It is Vavi’s first report of this nature since being reinstated after his suspension over his extramarital affair with a junior employee and various other allegations. The other report that will be debated at this week’s meeting is that of the ANC task team led by Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa that intervened in COSATU’s factional fights in an attempt to prevent a breakup.

Media reports have suggested that the ANC task team will report that it was unable to resolve the issues dividing the federation, thus paving the way for a formal split in that COSATU’s biggest affiliate, the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (NUMSA), will either be suspended or the union itself will pull out of COSATU. NUMSA supported Vavi during his suspension, called for a special national congress to elect new leaders for COSATU (supported by 8 other COSATU unions), strongly opposed government economic policies, and ended its support for the ANC. The City Press newspaper has also quoted “well-placed sources” as saying that Vavi would inevitably be suspended again this week.

·     What to make of it:  On the balance of available information and signals from the various parties involved, it seems quite possible, even likely, that the Ramaphosa task team has not resolved all or even any of the contentious issues. But while NUMSA has quietly remained hostile towards the ANC and still plans to form both a socialist workers’ movement and political party, it significantly toned down its hostility in public due to the agreement reached among the parties in April to back off while the task team tried to find a solution. Similarly the opposing COSATU faction and the other two alliance partners, the ANC and SACP, refrained from bad-mouthing the NUMSA-led faction.

While the Ramaphosa task team may perhaps not have found a solution to the problems (although that must still be confirmed), the back-off deal it brokered with the parties certainly managed to take the heat off the situation for several months. As a result, if a compromise solution is not found this week, neither faction may be overly hasty to act and may first want to think through their options. In any case, neither COSATU nor NUMSA can expel/pull out without ratification by their respective national congresses or special versions thereof. Also, COSATU knows if it kicks out NUMSA, other parties will follow, thus weakening the federation and reducing it in status to little more than the ANC’s labour desk.

NUMSA was still fired up over going it alone and forming a movement and political party at the time of its special national congress late last year, and even still so by April this year. But the long silence forced upon it by the task team’s back-off deal and the lack of visible movement in forming the promised movement or party, may also have significantly taken the steam out of its plans. It may well have assessed that it has lost some popular support for its plans as a result and that the time to go it alone is perhaps not all that ideal.

These are the kind of issues that could factor in a postponement of any drastic actions by either side.  

On the other hand, below the surface the tensions continued simmering. Thus the warning several months ago by ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe – when he argued against COSATU holding a special national congress – that putting the warring parties in the same room would see COSATU explode and break up, could equally prove true this week.  Vavi has already signalled that compiling his secretariat report for the CC has “never been this challenging. This could signal that the differences between the factions continue to be huge and even insurmountable, and/or that he may be forced to raise controversial issues with a potential to further fuel the internal war.

And further evidence of the mood going into this week’s CEC meeting is the fact that NUMSA has threatened COSATU with court action should anything else than the two items on the agenda be discussed, namely the two reports. This tends to suggest however that NUMSA is not prepared to leave the federation just yet. Vavi too seems to be holding out for the survival of COSATU in its present form. Over the weekend he warned union leaders that pursuing factional interests first would cause the collapse of COSATU and would impact in the national political arena to the ANC’s serious detriment.

Whether Vavi will again be suspended is a different matter as his suspension was overturned by a court. There has been no change in the relative circumstances regarding this and any such move would again expose COSATU to more possible court challenges. It could also reignite widespread sympathy for the Vavi/NUMSA camp to NUMSA’s advantage. But in the meantime the situation remains extremely fluid and things could go either way this week. Any break-up of COSATU will have serious repercussion for the Alliance and would seriously weaken the ANC, a situation it would want to avoid with municipal elections looming.

ANC provinces

While the ructions in COSATU are making the headlines, few have noticed the emerging power struggles in the ANC in various provinces where elective provincial conferences are soon to be held. In the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal challenges are being mounted against currently serving leaders, while in Gauteng there was talk of a challenge before its recent provincial conference, but it never materialised. In one or two other provinces rumours of possible challenges are also doing the rounds. However, some of these attempts are being blocked by ANC secretary-general Mantashe who wrote to the provincial structures to remind them that members serving on higher structures such as the  national executive committee (NEC) may not run for positions on lower structures such as a provincial executive committee (PEC).

In KwaZulu-Natal’s eThekwini ANC region – the biggest ANC region in the country with 103 branches - Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Deputy Minister Bheki Cele has been approached to stand for the position of chairman against Zandile Gumede, the region’s current treasury. The position is extremely influential and powerful in the province and was previously held by Cele for ten years until he was elected to the ANC’s NEC.

In the Western Cape there is already much jostling for positions to be decided at the provincial conference early next year, with several candidates emerging who may challenge current provincial chairperson Marius Fransman and provincial secretary Songezo Mjongile. One alleged would-be challenger, former provincial leader Mcebisi Skwatsha, has been ruled out by Mantashe’s letter. However, in some instances ineligible would-be challengers are backing proxy challengers, it is being said. Two other volatile provinces where rumours constantly surface – without much proof – of future challenges to leadership incumbents are Limpopo and North West.

Before Gauteng’s recent provincial conference NEC member and Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula is said to have been approached by the Gauteng branches to stand for provincial chairperson and that he was considering doing so, but nothing came of it. Instead Gauteng re-elected its anti-Zuma leadership.

·     What to make of it:  These developments point more to being regional than national struggles around local tensions, issues or leadership contests. There is undoubtedly also truth in Mantashe’s assertion that persons holding dual positions at different levels of the party would make it difficult for the ANC to deploy them to various provinces to oversee activities and respond to grievances and could lead to conflicts of interests.

However, if they were allowed it could feed into the tensions and factionalism at national level. For instance, Cele had been a powerful backer of President Zuma in KwaZulu-Natal before being fired by Zuma as national police commissioner following tender irregularities. Thereafter Cele was rumoured to be part of a disgruntled KwaZulu-Natal group that no longer supported Zuma. But Zuma brought him back into the inner fold earlier this year when he appointed him deputy minister…possibly either to keep a close eye on him, or to restore their relationship.

Fransman meanwhile was demoted to Western Cape leader of the opposition when Zuma dropped him as a deputy minister earlier this year. And despite signs on more than one occasion that Mantashe was becoming irritated by having to clean up after Zuma and protect him from his own controversies, politically Mantashe and Zuma are still very much playing in the same team. Mantashe is also a senior SACP member and the SACP remains committed to backing Zuma for reasons of political expediency. So if anything, Mantashe would probably want to see Zuma supporters in strong positions in  the provinces.

But the upshot of all of this is that, just as at the national level, there are ructions, factionalism and emerging power struggles…all of which could eventually also influence the nearing, if not already emerging,  succession struggle at the national level to replace Zuma. From that perspective, these developments do have importance.

Written by Stef Terblanche, Political Analyst & Editor, Africa-International Communications