- Rising investment in Middle East & Africa by Chinese policy lenders

- Sub-Saharan Africa has seen the vast majority of this lending since 2014

- Nigeria and Kenya the biggest recipients of Chinese policy during the period

- Power projects attract most Chinese policy lending; volume of lending to transport projects declining

The value of loans from Chinese lenders to energy and infrastructure projects in Africa almost trebled between 2016 and 2017, from USD 3bn to USD 8.8bn, with policy lenders China Development Bank and China Exim particularly active in helping bridge Africa's infrastructure gap.

Almost half of the total USD 19bn of Chinese outbound loans poured into infrastructure projects in sub-Saharan Africa since 2014 were made last year (2017). Notably, Chinese lenders accounted for more than 40% of all infrastructure finance in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017 and its policy banks made more the four fifths of lending by Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) in the region.

Chinese commercial and policy bank lending for infrastructure projects in sub-Saharan Africa totalled USD 3.6bn in 2014, USD 3.4bn in 2015 and USD 3bn in 2016, before spiking almost 300% to USD 8.8bn in 2017, driven by a series of large power projects across Africa.

The trends are revealed by new research from global law firm Baker McKenzie and IJGlobal, the leading trade publication for infrastructure projects, as leaders from the BRICS bloc - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - meet in Johannesburg this week for their annual summit. Data is drawn exclusively from fully financed projects and excludes recent announcements of government funding commitments.

Speaking from the BRICS Energy event, which preceded the BRICS Summit, Kieran Whyte, Head of Energy, Mining and Infrastructure at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg said the rising impact of Chinese policy lending in Africa is increasingly visible.

“Chinese president Xi Jinping’s recent tour of African countries ahead of the Summit is proof of the increasing interdependence of the maturing but still fast growing Chinese economy and developing economies in Africa,” says Whyte.

“This is much more sophisticated outbound lending than the cliché about China investing in African minerals and rail to get commodities to China to feed manufacturing – the data clearly shows Chinese lending predominantly shifting towards African power projects,” he says.

“All countries need power generation, transmission and distribution assets which are reliable and meet demand; without this, wider development is a distant dream," said Jon Whiteaker, editor of IJGlobal. "It is little surprise then that the power sector has grown to be by far the biggest recipient of Chinese policy lending in Africa. The US government may have recently jump-started its Power Africa programme, but it has increasingly been Chinese lenders which African and Middle Eastern countries have turned to get power projects financed.”

Globally, infrastructure deals featuring significant Chinese financing have risen more than threefold since 2012, driven among other things by China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), going from 31 deals in 2012 to 105 deals in 2017. The BRI is a world scale Chinese development strategy that combines the creation of a 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and a Silk Road Economic Belt.

Whyte explains that this shift towards power is because China is comfortable operating in the energy sector and is aware power acts as a catalyst for the growth of other sectors in Africa, providing foundations for long term economic development.

"It's also true that in terms of infrastructure development, many of China’s construction companies are world leaders in the power sector and Chinese goods and equipment are used in the construction process, which further benefits China's economy,” he says.

Whyte adds that as one of South Africa’s largest trading partners, China plays an important role in infrastructure investment in that country. At the BRICS Summit Energy event this week, China pledged to invest USD 14.7bn in South Africa and to grant loans to state owned enterprises Eskom and Transnet.

Against the background of a geopolitical shift in trade relations, China has noted that it is looking to work with African countries in a participative and inclusive way,

Another recent report by Baker McKenzie and Silk Road Associates; Belt & Road: Opportunities & Risks - the prospects and perils of building China's New Silk Road details how key opportunities in Africa with regards to the Belt & Road Initiative will be transactions related to major projects in the power and infrastructure sector and related financing.

Notable projects

Recent examples of large power deals in Africa where at least 50% of the finance was provided by Chinese lenders include:

Mambila Hydropower Plant (Nigeria) valued at USD 5.8bn
Lamu Coal-Fired Power Plant (Kenya), a USD 2bn PPP
Medupi Coal-Fired Power Plant (South Africa), worth USD 1,5bn
Kafue Gorge Lower Hydro Power Plant (Zambia) in 2015, worth USD 1.5bn.
While European DFIs increasingly focus only on lending to renewable energy projects in Africa, coal is still an essential part of energy baseload and vital in a region where grid capacity is almost non-existent and almost two-thirds still live without ready access to power.

Countries

The African countries seeing most Chinese lending are Kenya and Nigeria, which alone have swallowed up almost 40% of the USD 19bn of lending to projects in sub-Saharan Africa since 2014. However, Chinese banks have been active lenders to infrastructure projects in 19 different countries in the past four years. Chinese policy lending is also set to widen, with Senegal recently becoming the first West African country to sign up to supporting the BRI.

Infrastructure projects in Ethiopia have received USD 1,8bn since 2014, Kenyan projects USD 4,8 bn, Mozambique infra deals USD 1,6bn and Nigerian projects USD 5bn from Chinese lenders. South African infrastructure projects have received USD 2,2 bn from Chinese lenders since 2014, Zambia has received USD 1.5bn and Zimbabwe has seen USD 1.3bn in loans from Chinese policy lenders since 2014.

Sectors

The power sector in sub-Saharan Africa has received USD 17,5 bn in loans from Chinese lenders since 2014 (USD 8,8 bn of this amount was in 2017). The oil and gas sector has received USD 3,2 bn (USD 1,7 bn in 2017) and the transport sector in sub-Saharan Africa received USD 5,5 bn from Chinese lenders since 2014 (with USD 500 million received in 2017).

Whyte notes that for investors in Africa, “A big attraction of China’s Belt & Road Initiative for both African governments and project sponsors is that it assists the speed of project implementation. Project stakeholders advise that the whole process is a lot quicker than other options. Chinese policy lenders assist in providing liquidity and contribute to the speed of implementation of projects in Africa, which is necessary for Africa to participate in the roll-out of the fourth industrial revolution and the global energy transition,” he adds.

Submited by Baker McKenzie