Calculated moves by African National Congress (ANC) members to disrupt branch meetings and the implementation of slates have led to disarray in the party's provincial nomination conferences, an analyst said on Thursday.

Slates are fixed and mutually exclusive leadership lists drafted by rival factions ahead of an elective conference.

Political analyst Ebrahim Fakir said if the ANC did not prevent slates from being implemented, the national conference in Mangaung could have "severe consequences" for the party.

"Firstly, there are practical realities to the nomination conferences, such as organising venues, and this could potentially delay conferences," Fakir said.

"Secondly, some factions in branches who are supporting a specific candidate [for ANC president] make a calculated move to not attend branch meetings, so that the branch does not reach quorum."

The provincial conferences could only take place once branch regional meetings had been concluded.

Fakir said the potential consequences for slates could be disastrous for the party.

"If there are slates, this time the consequences will be more severe than [the last national conference in] Polokwane," he said.

Fakir said there were slates at Polokwane and this left a lot of members out of higher positions in the party. If there was a slate that put President Jacob Zuma at the top, and his deputy Kgalema Motlanthe challenged his position and lost, Motlanthe would no longer be able to stay on as ANC deputy president.

"There are some serious-minded people in the ANC who are trying to stem the tide of mutually exclusive slates," Fakir said.

"If there are slates it will it spell the beginning of the end for the ANC."

Provinces were scrambling to hold their conferences before Friday, which was the deadline imposed by the ANC's national executive committee – a cut-off which had already been extended by four days.

Only one of the party's nine provinces, KwaZulu-Natal, had completed its nomination conference by Thursday afternoon. The province, the ANC's biggest, had come out in support of Zuma for a second term.

The Gauteng, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga and Free State nomination conferences were scheduled to take place on Thursday.

The Eastern Cape nomination conference at the University of Fort Hare, in Alice, was scheduled to start on Thursday afternoon, but was running late.

The ANC's second-largest region, OR Tambo, based in Mthatha, had already unanimously voted to nominate Motlanthe to lead the party.

The Free State's nomination conference in Sasolburg was delayed on Thursday morning. It was scheduled to have started at 10am, but was delayed as branch audit reports had not been received.

Results of the Mpumalanga conference had not yet been announced. Delegates at the conference chanted the names of their preferred leaders, including Zuma, national executive committee member Cyril Ramaphosa, secretary general Gwede Mantashe and ANC chairperson Baleka Mbete.

The Gauteng ANC conference was scheduled to start at 6pm on Thursday.

On Tuesday, the Limpopo ANC postponed its provincial conference to Friday. This was to allow 70 branches to conclude their branch general meetings.

The North West, Western Cape and Northern Cape were also scheduled to have their conferences on Friday.

According to the SABC on Thursday afternoon ANC branches in the Dullah Omar region, the biggest in the Western Cape, endorsed Motlanthe.

Political analyst Steven Friedman wrote in The New Age newspaper on Thursday that the results of the provincial nomination conferences were "entirely unimportant" to the final vote in Mangaung in December.

"Provinces are not meant to vote in blocks – delegates sent by branches can vote any way they like. So the fact that a province has supported a candidate does not force any of its branches to vote for that person."

He wrote that provincial conferences were only important because no one could be a candidate in Mangaung unless they were nominated by a province, or nominated from the floor by 25% of delegates.

"It is probable ANC heavyweights are bargaining to prevent an election," Friedman wrote.

"The branch nomination process has proved far more of a problem... and there is a high chance that, if there is a contest, it could dissolve into a fight about who is entitled to vote."

A deal may then be needed to ensure that this would not "tear the ANC apart".

"Motlanthe then could be re-elected [as deputy president] unopposed."