1993 National Assembly Election

2005 National Assembly Election

* 100 seats were filled based on the election results; the remaining 18 seats were allocated based on the constitutional requirement that 60% of seats are filled by ethnic Hutus, 40% by ethnic Tutsis, 30% by women, and three by ethnic Twa. The figures in brackets reflect the distribution of seats after these requirements were met.

Introduction

With a turbulent and unstable past characterised by ethnic feuds and military coups, Burundi looks to its upcoming Presidential and Parliamentary election to solidify its infant and fragile democracy. After more than 16 years of ethnic conflict, the election is seen as a huge milestone for the country after facing significant challenges. The situation on the ground, however, remains tense between political actors as the election date approaches. The first round of the Presidential poll is set for June 28, and the second round for July 26 (if needed), while the Parliamentary poll is scheduled for July 23.

Electoral System

In previous elections, the President was elected by the National Assembly for a five-year term. However, in the upcoming Presidential elections, the President will be voted for on the basis of a popular direct vote. The current President, Pierre Nkurunziza, is eligible to run for another term.

The National Assembly consists of 118 seats, of which 100 are elected by direct popular vote in multimember constituencies using the party-list proportional representation system. In line with the Constitution, 18 members are coopted to ensure that ethnic quotas are met. These quotas are as follows: 60% must be Hutu, 40% must be Tutsi and three ethnic Twa. Women must fill 30% of the quota. Members of the National Assembly serve five-year terms.

Belgian Colonialism

The colonial history of Burundi is characterised by Belgian occupation and administration. Taking advantage of the ethnic and social divides within Burundian tribalism and a Tutsi-dominated autocratic hierarchy, the Belgian colonisers adopted a policy of divide-and-rule by politically empowering the minority Tutsis to rule over the Hutus.

After World War II, the Ruanda-Urundi became a United Nations trust territory under Belgian administration with limited political activity allowed, which paved the way for the emergence of two main political parties: multi-ethnic Uprona, and the Belgian-backed Christian Democratic Party (PDC). Uprona leader, Tutsi Prince Louis Rwagasore, was assassinated following an Uprona victory in the 1961 legislative election.

Independence

Burundi achieved independence on July 1, 1962. Inheriting weak democratic institutions and an extreme lack of infrastructure, Tutsi King Mwambutsa IV established a constitutional monarchy that comprised equal representation of Hutus and Tutsis. Relative peace prevailed until the assassination of the Hutu Prime Minister in 1965, which sparked a series of Hutu revolts leading to a subsequent spell of government repression. The following year, Mwambutsa was deposed by his son Prince Ntare IV, who was ousted the same year by a military coup led by Michael Micombero. Micombero proceeded to abolish the constitutional monarchy, declaring Burundi a republic and ruling through a de facto military regime.

The flight of masses of Burundians took place in 1972, after a Hutu rebellion against the Tutsi regime. The rebellion set the tone for continued civil unrest throughout the 1960s and 1970s.

Jean-Baptiste Bagaza

Micombero's second republic effectively ended with a bloodless coup lead by the Tutsi Jean-Baptiste Bagaza in 1976. Bagaza advocated land reform, electoral reform and national reconciliation. Subsequently, a new Constitution was promulgated in 1981 and Bagaza was elected Head of State in 1984. Contrary to his early views of tolerance and reconciliation, Bagaza, once elected, suppressed the media and detained political opposition.

Pierre Buyoya and the Onset of Civil War

Three years after Bagaza was elected into power, he was overthrown by Pierre Buyoya who effectively suspended the 1981 Constitution and instituted the Military Committee for National Salvation (CSMN) as the ruling political force in the country. Buyoya's tenure was characterised by an increase in ethnic tensions between the Hutus and ruling Tutsis and violent civil unrest. During this period, 150 000 people were killed and there was a mass flight of refugees to neighbouring countries.

Buyoya drafted a new Constitution in 1991, which made provision for a president, a multi-ethnic government and the establishment of a Parliament. Subsequently, Burundi elected its first President, Melchior Ndadaye from the Hutu-dominated Frodebu in 1993. Ndadaye was, however, assassinated by factions within the armed forces, which were dominated by Tutsis.

With the President's assassination, the country was effectively plunged into a state of civil war. Ethnic violence dominated the Burundian landscape for the next decade in which tens of thousands of people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced. Once Frodebu regained control and elected Cyprien Ntaryamira as President in 1994, the country's security situation deteriorated further. During the same year, neighbouring Rwanda was gripped by a brutal genocide that served to exacerbate the crisis in Burundi and intensify the conflict with the influx of thousands of Rwandan refugees severely destabilising the social landscape.

The End of the Civil War and the Peace Process

The country's devastating ethnic conflict eventually ended in 2006 under a South Africa-brokered agreement between the Burundian government and the country's last major rebel group. Burundi currently faces the challenges of reconciling the damage done in the past between the two ethnic groups. Further, it is occupied with improving relations with its neighbours after the regional refugee crisis as a result of the civil war.

The eventual signing of peace accords that ended the civil war in 2008 was a gradual and faltering process. With early unsuccessful attempts to reconcile the warring parties under the auspices of Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere, his death in October 1999, meant that former South African President Nelson Mandela took over the process in 2000.

Under Mandela, the Arusha Accords were revived with greater urgency towards a peaceful settlement between Hutu (G-7) and Tutsi (G-10) political parties, the government and the National Assembly. However, an armed rebel faction of the Hutu group refused to accept the accords and armed rebellion continued.

In 2001, a three-year transitional government was established with Buyoya, representing the G-10, as interim President and Domitien Ndayizeye, representing the G-7, as Vice-President.

In October 2003, there was another breakthrough with the government and former rebel group CNDD-FDD signed a ceasefire, as well as a power sharing agreement. The agreement saw an influx of foreign aid and assistance, specifically from the World Bank and other bilateral donors, aimed at financing the disarmament, demobilisation and the reintegration of Burundi's warring combatants.

Disagreement over postransitional power arrangements, however, continued to hinder the peace process with Tutsi parties boycotting Parliamentary votes on a postelection Constitution. In February 2005, Burundians overwhelmingly approved a postransition Constitution drafted by Parliament in a popular referendum, thus paving the groundwork for general elections set for 2005.

2005 Parliamentary Elections

Direct elections took place on June 3, 2005, with the CNDD-FDD taking a majority of the vote (71,4%) and a consequent majority of 65 Parliamentary seats. Parliament elected Pierre Nkurunziza as the country's President.

The end of the conflict was recognised through an agreement signed between the last remaining rebel group, the National Forces of Liberation (FNL), and the Burundian government in 2008. The two groups are currently working towards implementing the agreement, which seeks to eliminate ethnic tensions and push towards a workable solution for all groups to cooperate after the upcoming elections. The FNL has since been granted permission to act as a political party and run for leadership positions in the upcoming poll.

Opposition Boycott

Incumbent President Nkurunziza is guaranteed another term in the upcoming Presidential elections after a widespread boycott by the country's opposition. The boycott is indicative of the country's political dislocation and instability and has given rise to fears that the country may revert to civil war. Fears have been exacerbated as numerous incidents of violence have been reported, with a grenade and other attacks leaving dozens wounded and several dead.

Although the peacebuilding process in Burundi has been largely successful, the upcoming Presidential and Parliamentary elections are seen as an acid test as to whether the country truly has moved on from its conflicted past.

Future Prospects

The upcoming elections are pivotal for the tiny African nation as a smooth transition to democracy will greatly boost the country's appeal for investment and lay the foundation for the establishment of political and economic institutions. For a nation in which over 81% of the population lives below the poverty line, relief and social upliftment is of vital importance for social wellbeing.

Stimulating the local economy is also crucial as more than one-half of Burundi's gross domestic product (GDP) is derived from foreign aid. For this to occur, local industry needs to be encouraged, which relies heavily on the agricultural sector, specifically the main cash crop coffee. Further, the agricultural sector accounts for 34% of the country's GDP.

The country is currently greatly assisted by the International Monetary Fund, which has placed Burundi onto a Poverty Reduction Programme. Further, the country has been incorporated into the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative under which $424-million in debt has been written off.

Economic recovery, thus, remains an important issue for Burundi to tackle. Credible elections, free of violence, will go a long way to providing a platform of political stability for economic growth to occur. Ensuring this stability, however, will prove to be a challenge with ethnic divisions and intimidation remaining two of the main obstacles.

Main Sources

Foreign Policy. The country in the mirror. (June 15, 2010).
Human Rights Watch. Burundi: Ensure zero tolerance for election violence. (June 15, 2010).
Idasa. From power sharing to democracy? Facing the forces of change in Burundi's upcoming elections. (June 10, 2010).
African Elections Database. Elections in Burundi. (15 June, 2010).
UN News. Burundi President unopposed in controversial poll. (June 24, 2010).
US Department of State. Background note: Burundi. (December 28, 2009).