Ahead of the ANC's manifesto launch in East London this weekend, political analysts are divided over whether the ruling party or its new rival Cope will capture the hearts and minds of voters in the hotly contested Eastern Cape province.

Political analyst Protas Madlala said that while Cope was likely to reduce the ANC's majority in Eastern Cape, it did not have the muscle to dislodge the ruling party from the driving seat.

"A majority of people in the province still associate the ANC with the struggle for liberation, and are likely to perceive Cope as a threat to the revolution."

That Cope had come across as a party trying to appease the white population as well as the black elite, and perceptions that its leaders were opportunists whose main focus was to revive their own political careers, were some of the obstacles which the ANC splinter organisation would find difficult to overcome.

"It will work heavily for the ANC. People might view the ruling party's fight with Cope as a struggle to save the revolution," Madlala said.

Cope's current financial challenges, were not helping the newly formed party either.

"I have no doubt that the ANC is going to emerge victorious," Madlala said.

However, Centre for African Renaissance Studies chairman Shadrack Gutto disagreed with Madlala's analysis, saying the outcome of the battle between the ANC and Cope was not a forgone conclusion.

"It is going to be a tough battle," he said.

It would be difficult for the ANC to claim sole ownership of the liberation struggle since many of Cope's leaders had also made a contribution.

Neither would it be easy for the ruling party to claim that its policies alone were an answer to the plight of the poor.

"The ANC has been in government for 15 years and yet the Eastern Cape still remains one of the poorest provinces in the country - the ANC has to convince voters things will be different this time around."

Resources for electioneering did matter, but this had to be accompanied by messages that appealed to voters.

The ANC was planning to bus in 75,000 supporters to its manifesto rally at the ABSA stadium in East London on Saturday.

ANC president Jacob Zuma, who in the past had ruled out any major policy shift in the ANC-led government after the elections, would present the ruling party's manifesto.

Both Madlala and Gutto said it was unlikely that the ANC's manifesto would represent a major departure from the government's current policies.

Meanwhile, the ANC said it did not expect former president Nelson Mandela to attend the launch, as reported in some media.

"He has repeatedly stated that he is a loyal member of the ANC, but he is now retired, and we do not expect him to be active at the age of 90.

"He has sent a message of support that will be read out at the ANC's 97th anniversary celebrations in East London on Saturday," said spokeswoman Jessie Duarte.

It was still not yet clear on Thursday whether former president Thabo Mbeki would attend Saturday's event.

Mbeki's recall by the ANC leadership late last year was cited as one of the main reasons disgruntled ruling party members resigned and decided to form an alternative party.