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The HIV/Aids epidemic in South Africa peaked last year with an estimated 4,69-million infected people and was starting to level off, the authors of a new research article have claimed.

"HIV incidence rates in the 15 to 49 age group are projected to have decreased substantially from 4,2% in 1997 to 1,7% in 2003," says the article, which appeared in the latest edition of African Journal of Aids Research.

"The projected annual number of deaths due to Aids is expected to peak in 2008 at 487 320".

The article was co-authored by independent health and disease control consultant Dr Thomas Rehle in Washington, and Dr Olive Shisana, executive director of the Human Sciences Research Council's (HSRC) national research programme on the social aspects of HIV/Aids.

A brief of the article was released by the HSRC yesterday.

It estimated that prevalence rates of the disease among 15- to 49-year-olds peaked in 1997 with 685 900 new infections in that year.

The slow-down in this sector of society was likely the combined result of behavioural changes and the impact of Aids-related deaths.

The researchers estimated that 2,34-million women had the disease in 2001, compared to 1,71-million men.

"Prevalence is expected to fall slightly until 2010 and will remain relatively stable until 2020".

The latest estimates painted a more positive scenario than earlier projections of how the epidemic would pan out until 2020, the HSRC said.

It was based on data obtained from the health department's national HIV prevalence surveys among pregnant women from 1990 to 2001 and adjusted according to the 2002 Nelson Mandela/HSRC Study of HIV/Aids - the first national population-based HIV survey, the HSRC said.

The authors conceded that more data was needed from future annual surveys to substantiate their projections that the epidemic had already reached its peak.

There was still much uncertainty regarding the future course of the epidemic, the HSRC brief said.

"The future development of the epidemic, for example, could be influenced if anti-retroviral treatment is made widely available and the implementation of programmes to prevent mother-to-child transmission could result in sizable changes in the projected scenarios".

Shisana and Rehle did not believe HIV/Aids would bring about a negative population growth rate in South Africa.

But, the projected growth rate by 2010 was 73 %smaller than it would have been in the absence of Aids, they said.

"Although our projections of the future HIV/Aids burden in South Africa are relatively moderate compared to the projections made by various other researchers, the projected morbidity and mortality due to HIV/Aids underscore nonetheless the same conclusion: the importance of acting now to fight the epidemic with an increased commitment from all levels of society," the authors concluded. – Sapa.

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