The availability and sustainability of reliable access to energy sources are vital to every aspect of human development and human security. As all sectors of a country’s economy rely on power to bring about development, nuclear power is emerging as a possibility to assist Africa in its pursuit of development.

Part I of this paper (available here) analysed Africa’s energy situation and focused on the continent’s pursuit of nuclear power by providing a short overview of the status of nuclear energy on the continent. Part II explores the constraints and possibilities for nuclear power as a reliable energy source for the continent.

Africa’s uranium resources

About 18% of the world’s recoverable uranium resources are found in Africa.⁽²⁾ Amongst the 54 countries in Africa (counting South Sudan), Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), South Africa, and Namibia are responsible for most of the production. Various operational mines are located within these four countries. Other countries have embarked on pre-production activities. These include Botswana, Cameroon, the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

It can therefore be assumed that uranium is recognised as a viable option for investment as it can contribute to the various countries’ economies. Furthermore, the extraction and production of uranium can act as a political tool that can be utilised to harness the feelings of development, independence, sovereignty, and liberation that these countries frequently need. The availability of uranium and, therefore, the potential of nuclear power development, if utilised correctly, can bring about the change the continent of Africa needs.⁽³⁾ In South Africa, for example, officials have agreed that the country’s abundance in uranium should be exploited for the benefit of the country rather than for the benefit of foreign nations and companies. Thus, South Africa embarked on a journey supporting the expansion of nuclear development within itself and is busy developing its uranium enrichment capacity. Here uranium resources have been utilised to develop nuclear power.⁽⁴⁾

Constraints on Africa’s nuclear Renaissance

It is, however, important to know the various constraints that make it difficult for African countries to embark on a nuclear Renaissance. The status quo of the continent, actual time and resource constraints, political instability and the insecurity of nuclear installations and the lack of legal compliance act as obstacles on the road to nuclear development.

Constraint #1: The African condition

The nuclear power infrastructure includes various facets without which it cannot function adequately and legally. Except for all the necessary manufacturing facilities, transformers and electrical grids, adequate Government oversight, anti-corruption measures, multi-faceted legal and regulatory frameworks, necessary safety and security measures, ample human resources with the necessary skills and abilities, investment and financial support, stable governance, as well as essential research is needed for the nuclear power industry to be developed.

These are facets that various African countries are infamous for not having, and without which nuclear power development, will not be able to occur.⁽⁵⁾

Constraint #2: Cost and duration of nuclear power development

Furthermore, the necessary arrangements involving the development and construction of nuclear power plants need planning and preparation as well as investment that would stretch over a 10 to 15 year period. Upfront investment is also needed in order for the project to be launched. This amount can range from US$ 2 billion to US$ 3.5 billion per single reactor. Again, emphasis is placed on the inability of African nations to acquire the needed expertise and investment to develop their nuclear power industries.⁽⁶⁾

Constraint #3: Political instability and insecurity of nuclear installations

African countries are unstable and are often unable to play a secure host to the nuclear power industry. The prevalence of inter-state conflict, civil and ethnic strife, insurgencies, corruption, and crime create a hostile and dangerous environment where nuclear policies cannot be implemented safely and successfully. Nuclear power development can also act as an incentive for conflict within and between nations. Owing to these factors, the risk is often too high for investors to invest in African countries.

In Nigeria, for example, insurgents continue to disrupt oil extraction and production in some areas of the country; in Niger, a uranium prospecting camp was attacked in 2010 by armed men; in the DRC, the continent’s first nuclear research reactor – with out-dated and unstable components – is guarded by a mere thin barbwire; and even in South Africa, armed gun men have gained access to an important nuclear research facility in an effort to sabotage control systems.⁽⁷⁾

Constraint #4: Not enough legal compliance

Legal and regulatory measures are thus a prerequisite for the development of any nuclear plant. International institutions often provide the necessary safety and security assistance. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is working with African member states to “enhance nuclear security by improving controls and detection equipment, upgrading physical protection, and providing emergency assistance and training staff.”⁽⁸⁾ The problem, however, should be addressed on a local level: African states must become more closely integrated into international regimes.

Too many African states have not yet fulfilled their obligations as set out by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the 1987 Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material. States have also been slow to ratify the Convention’s critical security amendments as brought about in 2005.⁽⁹⁾

Solutions offered from African and international states

In spite of the constraints, African leaders have been anxious to pursue nuclear power development in their countries. It is argued that the most rational approach to the development of a nuclear power industry in Africa is to acquire smaller reactors whose output would better accord with current grid capacity. Russian nuclear floating power plants have received interest amongst African countries such as Namibia and Algeria.⁽¹⁰⁾ Furthermore, Russia is offering medium-sized nuclear plants to Egypt, Morocco, and Namibia. The Eurasian country is also interested to participate in Namibia’s uranium mining projects.⁽¹¹⁾

Various foreign countries have shown interest in the investment of the nuclear power industry in several African nations. China, hungry for resources, has launched campaigns exploiting Africa’s resources – focussing on South Africa and developing the now defunct Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) as well as Niger and their abundant Uranium resources.⁽¹²⁾ The bonds built between the African countries and China are largely strategic – as most relations between the continent and China are. India, likewise, has also made its appearance and shown support in uranium-rich African countries such as Zambia. In Zambia, India has offered to develop nuclear strategies and policies. Iran has also stepped forward, proclaiming that it is willing to share its expertise of “using nuclear power for peaceful purposes” and focused development efforts on Algeria. Furthermore, France and the USA have also shown a lot of interest in many African countries.⁽¹³⁾

When looking at the local environment within Africa itself, some changes have been witnessed on the political, social, and economic fronts. African countries are demonstrating increased interest in regional cooperation and possible integration in order to uplift their economies. Various African countries’ shared interest in the development of a nuclear power industry reflects this sentiment of cooperation. Short-term cooperation is believed to develop into long-term integration, which will be reflected in the teamwork amongst the various African nations. Cooperation and integration on this level will involve interconnected grids, joint facilities, shared knowledge, shared expertise, as well as shared skilled labour pools. Thus, regionalisation concerning nuclear power development is recognised as a useful and possibly necessary instrument needed to uplift the countries that do not deliver economies of scale.⁽¹⁴⁾

It is, however, important not to be too optimistic seeing that the trust needed amongst nations is, mostly, not yet established. This is a phenomenon witnessed between African peoples, between African countries, and between Africa and the rest of the world. Because of the fact that countries in Africa are not integrated and often not interested to become integrated, nuclear power development can act as yet another cause of conflict. If the countries are not willing and able to work together, uranium exploitation and nuclear power development might become one of the lucrative resources in Africa that act as incentives for major conflict situations – whether it is between state leaders, insurgents, or private institutions. The spectre of nuclear proliferation might also haunt the nations and act as cause to conflict between the actors. If the countries do not work together, systemic and legal rules and regulations will not be established and nuclear power development will not be able to occur sufficiently.

Opportunities in Africa’s nuclear Renaissance

It is clear that countries in Africa have shown interest in the development of a nuclear power sector in Africa. If short-term regional cooperation develops into long-term regional integration, the climate for investment will be more favourable. A favourable investment climate will, in turn, attract more foreign direct investment.⁽¹⁵⁾

Nuclear power plants are relatively expensive to build, but relatively inexpensive to operate. It depends on the available energy resources, human resources, infrastructure, the cost of alternatives to nuclear power, environmental constraints and the energy security policies of the specific country. Therefore, the question raised is: when nuclear power is an option, what steps should be taken to economise nuclear power? In order for nuclear power to be economically viable, partnerships between both domestic and international public sectors and the private sector should be established. Governments, as investors, usually require long-term returns, whereas private industries require short-term returns. When a partnership between the relevant actors is established, the possibility of economic loss will be reduced.⁽¹⁶⁾

Furthermore, additional partnerships would benefit nuclear power development in Africa. Nuclear power programmes will expand the potential of development within the different countries and the continent as a whole. The IAEA assists countries in accomplishing the three necessary steps in nuclear development, comprising of energy planning, infrastructure development, and deployment. The IAEA also provides the necessary instruments and programmes for the planning process, it supports infrastructure development, and aids in the successful deployment by creating a forum of assessing innovative nuclear energy systems. Furthermore, the IAEA is the only United Nations (UN) agency that assists countries in this way. The agency has thus far been active in Nigeria and various Sub-Saharan African countries, including Kenya, Namibia, and Niger, amongst others. Again, emphasis is placed on regional integration where joint initiatives between Governments and other actors will pave the way for development.⁽¹⁷⁾

A third opportunity for potential investors is to actively engage with the newly-established African Commission on Nuclear Energy (AFCONE). Established in terms of the African Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty (also known as the Pelindaba Treaty), AFCONE and its members⁽¹⁸⁾ will be responsible for the development and oversight of nuclear energy in Africa.

AFCONE’s headquarters are to be established in South Africa. A follow-up conference on AFCONE is to take place within six months (July 2011) to develop AFCONE’s mandate and operationalise AFCONE’s activities.

Finally, the Renaissance will only happen if Africa starts to develop its own expertise. For this to happen, nuclear skills must be nurtured and developed. Educational and training programmes must be initiated on higher education level as well as in the forms of work-based training programmes. This takes place through the incorporation of nuclear expertise into current syllabi and through making bursaries available for the study of nuclear courses. Some progress has been made in terms of tertiary education and work-based training. Courses focusing on nuclear physics, nuclear engineering, nuclear project management, etc. are being introduced in various tertiary institutions across the continent. Furthermore, work-based training is seen in companies such as Eskom where engineers are being trained to become nuclear engineers.⁽¹⁹⁾

Concluding remarks

Nuclear power has been identified as a feasible option for the African continent’s future. The continent boasts with an abundance of uranium, but there are various constraints, including Africa’s insecure environment, time and resource limits, political instability, the insecurity of nuclear installations, and the lack of legal compliance that curtail development efforts.

Yet, despite these constraints, many leaders have chosen to jump on the nuclear bandwagon and embark on this potential journey to greater economic wealth and prosperity. Leaders and other actors in the international sphere have realised that the African countries (can and) will benefit from nuclear power in many ways. It is, however, important to note that nuclear power will not act as a quick fix for Africa’s problems. For Africa to develop and become an equal player on the global field, a healthy investment climate must firstly be established. Furthermore, African Governments must go beyond their traditional frameworks, embrace regionalism, and be determined to deal with the problems that impede Africa on her journey to development.

Partnerships should be established between Governments, the private sector as well as international role-players such as the IAEA. Only if such problems are addressed and well managed; if African nations are willing and able to regionalise; if Africa uses international support strategically; and if the world is made aware of the role they are to play, Africa’s nuclear renaissance could bring about the necessary change and development the continent is yearning for.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Lize-Marié Smuts and Jo-Ansie van Wyk through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Conflict and Terrorism Unit (conflict.terrorism@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) Hinshaw, D., 2010, ‘Africa looks to nuclear power’, Christian Science Monitor, 2010, http://www.csmonitor.com.
(3) Ibid; Olumuyiwa, C. Why Africa lags behind in the energy sector. A paper presented to the OFID Conference on Energy Poverty in Sub-Sahara Africa in Abuja, Nigeria on 9-10 June 2008.
(4) Khripunov, I., ‘Africa’s pursuit of nuclear power’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2007, http://www.thebulletin.org.
(5) Hinshaw, D., ‘Africa looks to nuclear power’, Christian Science Monitor, 2010, http://www.csmonitor.com.
(6) Khripunov, I., ‘Africa’s pursuit of nuclear power’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2007, http://www.thebulletin.org.
(7) Ibid.
(8) Ibid.
(9) Ibid.
(10) ‘Russia relocates construction on floating power plant’, World Nuclear News, 2008, http://www.world-nuclear-news.org.
(11) Khripunov, I., 2007, ‘Africa’s Pursuit of nuclear power’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 16 January 2011, http://www.thebulletin.org.
(12) Fig, D., 2010. Nuclear Energy Rethink? The rise and demise of South Africa’s PBMR. Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Paper, 210.
(13) Ibid.
(14) Baylis, J., Smith, S. and Owens, P., 2008. The Globalisation of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations (4th edition). New York, Oxford.
(15) Sokolov, Y.A. and McDonald, A., ‘The nuclear power options for Africa’, ATDF Journal, http://www.atdforum.org.
(16) Ibid.
(17) Ibid.
(18) Inaugural members of the African Commission on Nuclear Energy (AFCONE) comprise Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mauritius, Senegal, South Africa, Togo, and Tunisia. For more information, see ‘The Commission of the African Union operationalizes the Treaty of Pelindaba’, AU Press release, 5 November 2010.
(19) ‘Nuclear Skills Development in South Africa’, African Brains, 2 February 2011, http://www.africanbrains.net.

Written by Lize-Marié Smuts and Jo-Ansie van Wyk ⁽¹⁾