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10 February 2012
   
 
 
Article by: Keith Campbell

Africa is the region that is growing fastest out of the global recession.


"Our prediction is that this year the continent will have a growth of 4,5%, next year 5,5% and then 6%," reported African Development Bank vice-president and chief economist Professor Mthuli Ncube on Tuesday.


"This is a great time to be marketing Africa."


The continent suffered a sharp downturn due to the recession but is now experiencing strong upturn - a V-shaped recovery.


Africa's success is the result of the economic reforms of the 1990s. Command-style economies were abandoned in favour of more market-orientated economies. "These economic reform programmes worked," he affirmed. "What economic reform managed to do was to push Africa's [pre-crisis] economic growth to about 6%."


In addition, rigid exchange rates were, in most countries, replaced by flexible ones. "Flexible exchange rates are essential to absorb shocks. Flexibility is the way to go, to deal with crises," he highlighted.


Within Africa, the fastest growing region is East Africa. "There are 85-million people in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been growing at 10%. There is very good macroeconomic management in Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda," he explained. Rwanda is consciously seeking to emulate Singapore, and has created a Department of Strategic Planning and Execution.


In West Africa, Nigeria has managed to diversify its economy away from dependence on oil. Although oil still accounts for 95% of Nigeria's exports, it is responsible for a much lower proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP) - 32,3% last year. Agriculture made a greater contribution, at 36,5%, while the services sector was responsible for 8,2% of GDP.


"In North Africa, Egypt is strong in entrepreneurship," cited Ncube. "Algeria and the other states are resource economies but have good diversification with tourism and services."


The slowest growing region is Southern Africa. Of the ten African countries which experienced economic contraction last year, five were in Southern Africa (Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland) - six, if you include Madagascar.


The risk factors facing Africa include political crises; a failure of the global economy to recover as expected; a return to rising food prices; and growth driven by commodities might result in African economies becoming more specialised and so more vulnerable to market volatility.


"A lot of countries in Africa have done quite a bit in [economic] diversification, but they need to do more," urged Ncube. "What is missing in Africa is venture finance. There isn't any in Africa."


To date, the some $100-billion annual aid flow into Africa has not been affected by the global recession, but with a number of major developed countries now planning significant cuts in government spending, this could change. This might not, however, necessarily be a bad thing.

 

Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter
 
 
 
 
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AfDB vice-president and chief economist Professor Mthuli Ncube
 
AfDB vice-president and chief economist Professor Mthuli Ncube
 
 
 
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